《保险研究》20190808-《资产负债视角下我国城镇养老保险基金偿付能力的空间格局与溢出效应》（郑涛、宋晓彤、李梦莹）

［摘   要］面对日益严峻的社会养老问题,我国养老保险基金偿付能力及区域发展差距受到社会广泛关注。本文在资产负债视角下建立我国城镇养老保险统筹基金偿付能力评价体系,利用我国31个省市2010~2017年面板数据对城镇养老保险统筹账户的资产负债存量进行精算评估,根据评估结果对基金偿付能力的空间格局和动态空间效应进行实证研究。研究结果表明,养老保险基金偿付能力的空间区域差距明显,差距逐年增长,具有空间相关性,存在着空间格局分布不均衡、空间集聚效应较弱、养老保险基金存量不足等问题；养老保险基金结余对基金偿付能力有积极的空间溢出效应,区域经济发展水平、老年人口抚养比对基金偿付能力具有负向溢出效应。最后,根据上述结果提出推动各地养老保险基金偿付能力协调发展的对策建议。

［关键词］养老保险基金；偿付能力比率；资产负债评价体系；空间格局；空间溢出效应

［基金项目］河北省创新能力提升计划“资产负债视角下京津冀城镇养老基金偿付能力区域差异与协同发展研究”(18456247)；河北省高校人文社科重点研究基地科研项目“空间视角下人口结构对京津冀区域创新能力影响研究”(J201808)；河北省高等学校人文社会科学研究项目“我国居家养老服务共享平台的双边市场定价模型研究”(SD181050)。

［作者简介］郑涛,燕山大学经济管理学院教授,E-mail:389895478@qq.com；宋晓彤,燕山大学经济管理学院硕士研究生；李梦莹,燕山大学经济管理学院硕士研究生。

The Spatial Pattern and Spillover Effect of the Solvency of China's Urban Social Pension Insurance Fund from the Perspective of Assets and Liabilities

ZHENG Tao,SONG Xiao-tong,LI Meng-ying

Abstract：Facing the increasingly serious social pension problems,China's pension insurance fund’s solvency and regional development gap has attracted wide attention. Under the perspective of assets and liabilities,the paper established  the solvency evaluation system of urban social pension insurance pooling fund. Based on the panel data from 2010 to 2017 of 31 provinces and municipalities in China,the inventory of assets and liabilities of the urban social pension insurance pooling fund was evaluated by actuarial method,and according to the results of the evaluation,the spatial pattern and dynamic spatial effects of the solvency of the fund were empirically studied. The results show that the spatial regional gap of the pension fund’s solvency is significant,the gap is increasing year by year,it has spatial correlation,the spatial pattern is unbalanced,the spatial agglomeration effect is weak,and the pension fund is insufficient. Pension fund balance has a positive spatial spillover effect on fund solvency,whereas regional economic development level and old-age dependency ratio have negative spillover effect on fund solvency. Finally,according to the above results,some countermeasures and suggestions were put forward to promote the harmonious development of the solvency of the urban social pension insurance pooling fund in different regions.

Key words：social pension insurance fund;solvency ratio;asset-liability evaluation system;spatial pattern;spatial spillover effect