《保险研究》20190903-《中国保险业的空间分异及其经济绩效——基于地级以上城市的分析》（宋昌耀、李国平、李沅曦）

［摘   要］保险业是现代化经济体系的组成部分,是国民经济高质量发展的重要保障。本文基于2006～2016年地级以上城市数据,采用两阶段嵌套泰尔指数和面板工具变量模型，探究中国保险业的空间分异与经济绩效。研究发现:①中国保险密度和保险深度空间分异特征显著,高值区主要分布在东部、北部地区以及高等级城市和大型城市。②中国保险业空间分异主要来自于省域间差异,省域内差异增长迅速；人身保险业务空间差异水平高于财产保险业务。③城市层面,保险业发展显著促进经济绩效提升,财产保险业务的经济增长效应高于人身保险业务；低收入地区保险业的经济绩效更为显著。④保险业通过自我深化、风险转移、损失补偿和金融中介四种机制推动经济增长,直接机制作用大于间接机制,间接机制中金融中介机制的作用更为凸显。本文有助于丰富保险业的经济增长效应理论研究,也为城市通过保险业促进经济发展提供借鉴和参考。

［关键词］保险业；保险密度；保险深度；经济增长；经济绩效；空间分异

［基金项目］本文受国家自然科学基金面上项目(41671120)资助。

［作者简介］宋昌耀,北京大学政府管理学院博士研究生,研究方向:区域经济学和旅游经济学,E-mail:songchangyao@sina.com；李国平(通讯作者),博士生导师,北京大学政府管理学院教授,研究方向:经济地理、区域经济、城市与区域规划研究；李沅曦,现就读于北京大学政府管理学院。

The Spatial Pattern and Economic Performance of China’s Insurance Industry—An Analysis based on Prefecture-level City

SONG Chang-yao,LI Guo-ping,LI Yuan-xi

Abstract：The insurance industry is an important part of the modern economic system as well as the significant support of high-quality economic development.Based on the prefecture-level data from 2006 to 2016,the two-stage nested Theil index and panel instrumental variable method was used to explore the spatial differentiation and economic performance of China’s insurance industry.The study finds that:(1) There are significant spatial differentiation characteristics of China’s insurance density and insurance penetration,and the high-value areas are mainly distributed in eastern and northern China and high-grade cities and large-scale cities.(2) The spatial differentiation of China’s insurance industry mainly comes from inter-provincial differences while intra-provincial differences are growing rapidly;the level of spatial differentiation of life insurance is higher than that of property insurance.(3) The insurance industry promotes economic performance significantly at the city level;the economic growth effect of property insurance is higher than that of life insurance;the economic performance effect of insurance industry in low-income areas is more significant.(4) The insurance industry promotes economic growth through four mechanisms:self-deepening,risk transfer,loss compensation and financial intermediation.The impact of direct mechanism is larger than indirect mechanism,and the effect of financial intermediation is the most prominent among indirect mechanisms.The study may enrich the theoretical research on the economic growth effect of the insurance industry and provide references for urban economic growth by developing insurance industry.

Key words：insurance industry;insurance density;insurance penetration;economic growth;economic performance;spatial differentiation