《保险研究》20200601-《不设增速目标与保就业应对危机的良性循环市场化改革新路子——学习《政府工作报告》体会》（郑秉文）

［摘   要］为应对百年不遇的新冠肺炎疫情带来的巨大冲击，2020年《政府工作报告》罕见地没有设定经济增速目标，但却设定了新增就业900万以上和调查失业率6%左右的就业目标，将“保就业”置于“六保”之首，从而形成了一条不同寻常、应对疫情巨大冲击的市场化改革的良性循环新路子。本文认为，在三种不同城镇就业增长率和三种不同就业弹性的假定下，新增就业900万的政策目标“隐含”着潜在的增长目标，其最优合理区间为2.4%~3.9%，增长率最佳值在3.6%附近。由此，文章对规模性资金、减税降费和为疫情期间受影响最大的六个特殊群体实施帮扶这三项新政进行了详尽分析，认为完成新增就业900万的关键是提高就业弹性，规模性资金和减税降费应该精准滴灌，有的放矢，有效投入，以最大限度提高就业弹性；同时，为疫情期间受到影响最大的六个特殊群体实施帮扶以维持社会需求规模。最后，对“6亿人每个月的收入也就1000元”的空间分布和主要特征进行了深入探讨，认为我国仍处于并将长期处于社会主义初级阶段的基本国情没有变，《政府工作报告》中提到的“合理设定流动摊贩经营场所”的寓意非常深远，其本质是为经济管制“松绑”，是低收入群体实施自救和拓宽收入来源的一个重要手段。

［关键词］就业弹性；失业率；收入分配；减税降费；经济增长

［作者简介］郑秉文,全国政协委员,中国社会科学院世界社保研究中心主任。

Setting No GDP Growth Target and Guaranteeing Employment:A New Market-oriented and Virtuous-cycle Reform Path in response to Risks—Thoughts gained from learning “Government Work Report”

ZHENG Bing-wen

Abstract：In response to the tremendous impacts of the rare Covid-19 pandemic,the 2020 Government Work Report didn′t set a GDP growth target for the first time in many years,but set a new employment target of above 9 million and the surveyed unemployment rate of around 6%. The Report prioritized “employment guarantee” among the “6 guarantees”,thus creating an unordinary market-oriented and virtuous-cycle reform path in response to the tremendous impacts of the pandemic. The paper holds that under three different urban employment growth rates and three different employment elasticity assumptions,the target of 9 million new jobs imply potential growth rates within the prime reasonable range of 2.4%-3.9%,and the best growth rate is around 3.6%. The paper made a thorough analysis of the three new measures,namely,scaled capital,tax cuts and fee deductions,and relief towards 6 special groups hit the most by the pandemic,and held that the key to fulfilling the target of 9 million new jobs lied with the increase in employment elasticity. For this purpose,the scaled capital and tax cuts and fee deductions should be targeted closely for the best effect and for the largest possible increase in employment elasticity. Meanwhile,offering relief to the 6 groups affected the most by the pandemic can help to maintain the size of the social demands. Lastly,the paper made paper also made an in-depth exploration on the spatial distribution and major characteristics of “the 600 million people whose monthly income were merely 1000 yuan”,and reached the conclusion that the fundamental realities of China as a country still being,and would continue to be for a long period of time,at the primary stage of socialism remained unchanged.“Reasonably setting out venues for street vendors” mentioned in the Report carries a far-reaching message,which is essentially a relaxation of economic regulation,and an important measure to broaden sources of income and carry out self-relief for low-income groups.

Key words：employment elasticity;unemployment rate;income distribution;tax cuts and fee deductions;economic growth