《保险研究》20200802-《商业保险在中国家庭资产配置中的结构特征及驱动因素研究》（徐敬惠、李鹏）

［摘   要］目前我国缺乏反映家庭资产配置存量规模的时效性宏观数据。本文基于央行数据推算了2015~2019年的中国居民部门金融资产存量表,发现在2004~2019年居民金融资产构成中,商业保险稳固保持在第三位。但商业保险作为家庭资产配置的金字塔塔身来看,仍然占比较小,削弱了对家庭收入损失、大额医疗支出等风险的敞口覆盖,也抑制了家庭对风险金融市场的参与。随后本文基于2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据建立商业保险参与度的Probit模型,实证分析了中长期宏观因素对商业保险配置的影响变化。结果表明,风险对冲变量对居民保险资产配置有显著影响,家庭总负债和不动产比重是居民购买商业保险行为最重要的驱动因素。随着家庭实际债务压力、房产投资比重等杠杆率上行,家庭部门会更看重保险资产的配置,以应对负债危机对家庭财务上的冲击。

［关键词］商业保险；家庭资产配置；风险对冲；全生命周期

［作者简介］徐敬惠,大家保险集团总经理,高级经济师；李鹏,红杉资本中国基金资深研究员,经济学博士后。

A Research on the Structural Feature of Commercial Insurance in Household Assets Allocation and Driving Factors

XU Jing-hui,LI Peng

Abstract：There is a lack of current macro-data on the size of household assets in China.This paper projected China′s residential financial assets during 2015-2019 from central bank statistics.It found that in the structure of residential financial assets during 2004-2019, commercial insurance steadily ranked at the 3rd place.However, in the pyramid tower of household financial assets,commercial insurance still accounted for a relatively low percentage,therefore,its protection against household income loss and large amount of medical expenditure was weakened,and as a result,household participation into the risky financial market was constrained.Then the paper created a Probit model on commercial insurance participation level based on 2017 CHFS statistics,and empirically analyzed the impacts of medium-to-long term macro factors on commercial insurance allocation.The result shows that risk hedging variables have significant impacts on people′s insurance asset allocation;total household debts and percentage of real estate are important driving factors for purchasing commercial insurance;along with the rise of household debt pressure and the leverage ratio such as the ratio of investment in housing,individual houses tend to more emphasize insurance assets allocation in order to cope with the strike of debt crisis on household finance.

Key words：commercial insurance;household assets allocation;risk hedging;full life cycle