《保险研究》20200904-《健康风险对中国老年人年金需求的影响分析》（陈秉正、范宸）

［摘   要］本文根据中国老年人健康长寿影响因素调查(CLHLS)对中国老年人的健康状态转移概率进行了估计,并将健康风险引入多期生命周期模型对中国老年人的年金购买决策进行了分析。研究发现,在考虑了健康风险因素后,财富初始禀赋较低的老年人因存在预防性储蓄动机而不愿意购买年金。引入最低生活标准和遗赠动机后发现,最低生活标准是导致财富初始禀赋较低老年人不购买年金的重要原因；健康风险能进一步对中等财富水平老年人的年金决策做出解释。最后,对存在社会基本养老保险收入的城镇职工和城镇居民年金购买决策的分析发现,健康风险可以完全解释城镇居民不购买年金的原因,并能够对大约90%的城镇职工不愿意购买年金的行为进行解释。本文的研究结果为“年金之谜”提供了一个基于中国国情的解释,并对未来养老保险产品的设计提供了理论依据。

［关键词］健康风险；年金需求；多期生命周期模型

［作者简介］陈秉正,清华大学经济管理学院教授,清华大学中国保险与风险管理研究中心主任,研究方向:风险管理与保险；范宸,清华大学经济管理学院博士,研究方向:风险管理与保险。

The Impact of Health Risk on Chinese Elderly′s Demand for Annuities

CHEN Bing-zheng,FAN Chen

Abstract：This paper estimated the health transition probability based on Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS),and introduced health risk in the multi-period life cycle model to analyze Chinese elderly′s decision to purchase annuities.Taking account the impact of health risk,this paper found that elderly people whose initial wealth endowment at a relatively low level will make precautionary savings and are unwilling to purchase annuities.Next,this paper introduced consumption floor and bequest motive,and found that consumption floor was an important reason why low endowment elderly didn′t purchase annuities and health risks could further explain the annuity decision of seniors with medium-level wealth.Finally,this paper considered the provision of the social basic pension insurance and compared the annuity decisions of urban employees and urban residents.This paper finds that health risk can completely explain the reason why urban residents do not purchase annuities,and can explain about 90% of urban employees′ reluctance to purchase annuities.This research provides an explanation for the “annuity puzzle” in China′s specific situations,and provides a theoretical basis for the design of future retirement products.

Key words：health risk;annuity demand;multi-period life cycle model