《保险研究》20201002-《新冠疫情、全球政治风险市场与出口信用保险的创新发展》（王稳、陈字旺、张阳、闫帅）

［摘   要］本文基于新冠疫情冲击全球政治风险市场、政治风险变化影响全球经济增长和国际贸易的分析逻辑,构建含有经济决策的SIR模型,实证研究开放经济条件下疫情对全球政治风险市场的冲击程度以及出口信用保险的逆周期调节作用。结果发现,感染率越高,疫情对经济的冲击速度越快、冲击程度越大,不过这种影响是暂时的,一般在27至34周前后达到最大值。同时,出口信用保险能够有效对冲疫情冲击,减缓贸易下降幅度0.6至1.7个百分点,且疫情冲击越强,出口信用保险对贸易的支持作用越明显。因此,出口信用保险机构应加大产品、服务和融资功能创新,加快数字化转型,探索疫情防控常态化背景下的创新发展道路。

［关键词］新冠疫情因子；政治风险市场；出口信用保险

［基金项目］对外经济贸易大学研究生科研创新项目(编号:201908)、中国人民财产保险股份有限公司灾害研究基金重点项目(编号:2019DX)。

［作者简介］王稳,中国出口信用保险公司首席经济学家,对外经济贸易大学教授、博士生导师,研究方向:保险学；陈字旺,对外经济贸易大学保险学院金融学博士研究生,研究方向:保险学；张阳、闫帅,中国出口信用保险公司研究员,博士,研究方向:保险学。

The COVID-19,Global Political Risk Market and the Innovative Development of Export Credit Insurance

WANG Wen,CHEN Zi-wang,ZHANG Yang,YAN Shuai

Abstract：Based on the analytical logic of the COVID-19 impacting the global political risk market and the political risk changes impacting global economic growth and international trade,this paper constructed an SIR model embedded with economic decisions to empirically study the impact of the COVID-19 on the global political risk market and the counter-cyclical regulation effect of the export credit insurance under an open economy. It is found that the higher the infection rate,the faster and greater the impact of the pandemic on the economy,but this impact is temporary,and generally reaches its peak in about 27 to 34 weeks. At the same time,the export credit insurance can effectively offset the impact of the pandemic,slowing the decline in trade by 0.6 to 1.7 percentage points,and the stronger the impact of the pandemic,the more obvious the role of export credit insurance in supporting trade. Therefore,export credit insurance institutions should strengthen innovation on product,service and financing function,accelerate digital transformation,and explore innovative development paths under the background of regularized pandemic prevention and control.

Key words：COVID-19 factor;political risk market;export credit insurance