《保险研究》20201101-《我国保险行业声誉风险的形成、评估及其经济影响》（仲赛末、赵桂芹）

［摘   要］保险公司的声誉风险不但难以量化和管理,还会在行业内传染,造成严重的影响,甚至触发系统性风险。本文首先设计了适用于我国保险公司的声誉水平评估体系,然后应用期望波动理论度量寿险公司的声誉风险,实证分析声誉风险引致的经济影响。研究发现:本文构建的保险公司声誉评估体系科学实用,对声誉风险的识别和预警具有指导意义；保险公司声誉风险与经营状况呈显著负相关关系；发生重大声誉事件的保险公司具有脆弱性,存在触发行业系统性声誉风险的可能。监管机构需要尽快构建声誉风险的评估、预警和处理机制,提升对保险行业声誉风险的应对能力。

［关键词］声誉风险；形成机制；经济影响；系统脆弱性

［基金项目］本文得到上海市社科规划一般项目“保险行业声誉风险:形成机制、度量与监管”(2017BJB012)的资助。

［作者简介］仲赛末,中南财经政法大学金融学院讲师,研究方向:保险公司经营与管理；赵桂芹,上海财经大学金融学院副教授,博士生导师,研究方向:风险管理与保险。

The Formation,Evaluation and Economic Impact of Reputational Risk in the Insurance Sector

ZHONG Sai-mo,ZHAO Gui-qin

Abstract：The reputational risk of insurers is not easy to measure and manage,but it generates contagion inside the insurance industry and  causes serious economic impacts,even triggers the systemic risk.In this paper,we established the theoretical system for evaluating insurer′s reputational risk and then applied the expected volatility theory for measuring the reputation risk and examining the economic effect.Our research finds that the reputation evaluation system for insurers is viable and practical and plays an important role in detection and early warning of reputational risks.In addition,the insurer′s reputation risk is negatively correlated with its operation.Insurers which suffer from major reputation event are vulnerable and might trigger systemic reputational risk.Therefore,the regular should establish a mechanism to evaluate,predict and manage reputational risks of the insurance sector and enhance its reaction capability towards sectorial reputational risks.

Key words：reputational risk；formation mechanism;economic effect;system vulnerability