《保险研究》20210307-《农村人口老龄化、家庭资源限制与养老保险参与》（马九杰、唐溧、黄建、胡晓霁）

［摘   要］伴随着农村人口老龄化程度的加剧,养老风险敞口不断增大,在此背景下探讨农村家庭的养老保险决策,对完善农村养老保险体系和政策有重要意义。本文借助CFPS 2010、2012、2014以及2016年四期数据,采用双向固定效应模型,以老年人数量占比作为家庭人口老龄化的主要衡量指标,考察了其对新农保参与的影响。研究结果显示,同灶或同住家庭老人占比越高,参与新农保的概率越低。这一结果在考虑了可能的变量度量误差、样本选择偏差以及养老金净领取的影响之后依然稳健。进一步地,研究发现,流动性约束、代际竞争这一类家庭资源限制是使得老年人占比数量较高家庭参保更低的重要原因。除此之外,本文也得出了家庭老年人占比数量进一步制约参保家庭选择较高缴费档次和家庭资源限制的实证检验证据。

［关键词］家庭老龄化；新农保需求；流动性约束；代际竞争

［基金项目］本文受到中国人民大学科学研究基金项目(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金)(项目号:17XNL006)、国家自然科学基金项目“数字金融发展在农村金融空间配给缓解和实体经济金融普惠中的作用研究”(项目号:71973146)、国家社科基金重大项目“乡村振兴背景下数字乡村发展的理论、实践与政策研究”(项目号:20&ZD164)的资助。

［作者简介］马九杰,中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院教授,研究方向:农村金融；唐溧(通讯作者),中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院博士研究生,；黄建,中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院博士研究生；胡晓霁,博士,中央国债登记结算有限责任公司上海总部高级副经理。

Rural Population Aging,Family Resource Constraints and Participation into Pension Insurance

MA Jiu-jie,TANG Li,HUANG Jian,HU Xiao-ji

Abstract：With the aggravation of Chinese rural population aging,the pension risk exposure is constantly increasing.Under this background,it is of great significance to discuss on the rural pension insurance system and policy.Based on the statistics of 2010,2012,2014 and 2016 of Chinese Family Panel Study,this paper adopted the two-way fixed effect model and took the proportion of the elderly as the main indicator of the aging of the household population to investigate its impact on the participation into the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS).The results show that the higher the proportion of the elderly in the same kitchen or living with the same family,the lower the probability of participating in NRPS.The results remain robust after taking into account possible variable measurement errors,sample selection biases,and the net compensation of the pension scheme.The Paper further finds that the constraints on family resources such as liquidity constraint and intergenerational competition are the important reasons for the lower participation rate of families with a higher proportion of the elderly.In addition,the Paper also provided empirical evidences that the proportion of the elderly in the family also restricted the insured families to choose higher payment levels and the same for the family resource constraints.To conclude,this study shows that,under the influence of liquidity constraints and intergenerational competition,families with high family pension risk have insufficient participation and lower payment level in the NRPS,which should be paid close attention to.

Key words：family aging;demand for New Rural Pension Scheme;liquidity constraints;intergenerational competition