《保险研究》20210301-《后疫情时期中国的外部环境与经济增长研究》（阳光资产管理公司课题组）

［摘   要］2020年新冠疫情的暴发以及我国所面临的外部环境发生的剧烈变化,给中国经济发展带来了深远影响。经济层面,全球经济因疫情冲击陷入深度衰退,疫情后或呈现低增长、高杠杆、低利率的特征。生产和贸易层面,全球化遭遇逆流,全球产业链面临调整与重构。金融层面,信用风险和债务风险上升。地缘政治层面,全球治理无序的局面将会长期存在,大国博弈加剧,局势更加紧张。针对外部环境的变化和挑战,中国应强化底线思维,做好应对预案。一方面,加强经济安全尤为重要,主要是粮食安全、能源安全和金融安全；另一方面,要实现中国经济的高质量和可持续发展,需要转换与重构国内经济增长的动力机制:将房地产市场驱动转换为资本市场驱动,将外需驱动转换为内需驱动,将要素投入驱动转换为创新驱动。这也蕴含着“十四五”期间巨大的投资机遇。

［关键词］后疫情时期；经济安全；经济增长；动力机制转换与重构

［作者简介］课题组负责人:邱晓华,课题组成员:李衡、张艳杰、唐玉、徐习峰。邱晓华博士现任阳光保险集团首席经济学家、阳光资产管理公司首席战略官；李衡博士现任阳光资产管理公司宏观研究部负责人；张艳杰、唐玉现任阳光资产管理公司宏观研究部研究员；徐习峰曾任阳光资产管理公司宏观研究部研究员。

A study on China′s External Environment and Economic Growth in the Post-pandemic Period

Project group of Sunshine Asset Management Corporation Limited

Abstract：The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 and the dramatic changes in the external environment had a profound and long-standing impact on China′s economic development.At the economic perspective,the global economy fell into deep recession due to the impact of the pandemic,which was characterized by low growth,high leverage and low interest rate in the wake of the pandemic;globalization faced with a headwind,Sino-US trade disputes became protracted,the US science and technology blockade against China was further strengthened,and the industrial chain and supply chain adjustment accelerated.At the financial perspective,credit risk and debt risk increased.At the geopolitical perspective,the disorder in global governance may exist for a long time,the game between big powers intensified,and the situation became more tense.In view of the changes and challenges of the external environment,China should strengthen the bottom line thinking and make a good contingency plan.On the one hand,it is particularly important to strengthen economic security,especially financial security,energy security and food security;on the other hand,it is necessary to transform and reconstruct the growth engines of the domestic economy,transforming the real estate market driver into capital market driver,the external demand driver into domestic demand driver,and the factor input driver into the innovation driver.This also contains huge investment opportunities during the "14th Five-Year Plan".

Key words：economic security;economic growth;transformation and reconstruction of economic driver mechanism