《保险研究》20220104-《替代还是互补：现行政策性农业保险与气象指数保险关系研究》（刘亚洲、仲嘉玮、钟甫宁）

［摘   要］近年来，在政策性农业保险快速发展的同时，我国也在不断推动气象指数保险试点。然而，中央层面一直没有对气象指数保险给予财政支持。那么，两者之间的关系是什么？是否应该给予气象指数保险与政策性农业保险同样的财政补贴呢？本文从农业个体风险和系统性风险的角度着手，就现行的政策性农业保险与气象指数保险之间的关系进行探讨。进一步地，在测算我国粮食作物风险状况的基础上，探讨通过两类保险对我国种植业产量风险进行多层保障的可能性。研究发现:第一，农业个体风险和系统性风险存在此消彼长的关系，需要采取不同的分散机制予以分散；第二，在应对农业两类风险时现行政策性农业保险与气象指数保险之间存在着互补关系，现行政策性农业保险适合对个体风险进行管理，发挥风险管理功能，气象指数保险适合对系统性风险进行管理，发挥收入支持功能；第三，根据风险概率测算可以将我国粮食作物减产风险分层为(0，20%)、［20%，50%)、［50%，100%)3个损失区间，分别对应高概率免赔、基础系统性风险、小概率个体风险。最后，本文提出进一步完善我国种植业保险多层保障体系的建议，并结合实际案例检验其合理性。

［关键词］政策性农业保险；气象指数保险；个体风险；系统性风险

［基金项目］国家自然科学基金项目“农业气象指数保险供需边界与收入支持政策研究”(项目编号:71903121)、国家社会科学基金重点项目“我国农业保险高质量发展研究”(项目编号:19AZD011)。

［作者简介］刘亚洲，上海大学经济学院副教授，研究方向:农业保险、健康保险；仲嘉玮，上海大学经济学院硕士研究生；钟甫宁(通讯作者)，南京农业大学经济管理学院教授，研究方向:农业经济理论与政策。

Substitution or Complementation:Relationship between Policy-oriented Agricultural insurance and Weather Index Insurance

LIU Ya-zhou,ZHONG Jia-wei,ZHONG Fu-ning

Abstract：In recent years,with the rapid development of policy-oriented agricultural insurance,China is also constantly promoting the pilot program of weather index insurance. However,there has been no financial support for weather index insurance at thecentral government. Should weather index insurance be given financial subsidies similar to policy-oriented agricultural insurance? From the perspective of individual riskand systemic risk in agriculture production,this paper discusses the relationship between the policy-oriented agricultural insurance and weather index insurance. Further,on the basis of measuring the risk status of crops in China,the possibility of multi-layer protection of the yield risk of China's planting industry through two types of insurance is explored. The result shows that: Firstly,the two types of risks,individual risk and systemic risk,have a relationship between one and the other. It is needed to use different risk dispersed mechanisms to disperse individual risk and systemic risk. Secondly,there is a complementary relationship between the policy-oriented agricultural insurance and weather index insurance when dealing with the two types of agricultural risks.The policy-oriented agricultural insurance is suitable for managing individual risk to play a risk management function,whileweather index insurance is suitable for managing systemic riskto play a role in income support. Thirdly,according to the risk probability calculation,the risk of crop loss in China can be stratified into three loss intervals,(0,20%),［20%,50%),［50%,100%),which corresponds to high-probability deductible,systemic risk,and small-probability individual risk,respectively.Finally,this paper proposes to improve the multi-level crop yield insurance security system and fiscal subsidy in China,and analyzes the rationality of this system with a casestudy.

Key words：Policy-Oriented Agricultural Insurance;Weather Index Insurance;Individual Risk;Systemic Risk