《保险研究》20221107-《中国老年跌倒的健康冲击》（倪晨旭、李民、王震、肖可馨）

［摘   要］跌倒是我国老年人健康面临的重要威胁,但国内学界、老年人群及照护群体并未对老年人跌倒问题的重要程度形成充分认识。本文使用中国老年社会追踪调查(CLASS)三期面板数据,首次针对跌倒老年人所受的健康冲击做出经济学视角下的整体分析。在运用Lewbel IV方法克服了潜在的内生性问题后，较系统地厘清了跌倒对老年人多维度健康指标的因果效应，首次考察了负面冲击的持续性,进行了成本测算，并发现跌倒对健康的短期及长期影响存在城乡和性别异质性。本研究有助于加深对我国老年人跌倒问题的理解，为从政策实践上预防老年跌倒、完善我国长期照护体系提供有效经验证据和决策参考。

［关键词］跌倒；老年人；失能老人；长期照护体系

［基金项目］北京市社会科学基金重点项目“PPP模式下首都养老服务资源配置研究”(19YJA005)；中国社会科学院大学(研究生院)研究生科研创新支持计划项目成果(2022-KY-13)。

［作者简介］倪晨旭，中国社会科学院大学经济学院硕士研究生；李民，中国社会科学院大学经济学院博士研究生；王震,中国社会科学院经济研究所研究员、中国社会科学院大学经济学院教授；肖可馨(通讯作者)，中国社会科学院大学经济学院硕士研究生。

Health Shocks of Elderly Falls in China

NI Chen-xu,LI Min,WANG Zhen,XIAO Ke-xin

Abstract：Falls are an important threat to the elderly in China,but the significance of falls among senior people is not well recognized by the domestic academic community,the elderly population,and the caregiving community.This paper provides the first holistic analysis of health shocks to senior people who have fallen from an economic perspective using the China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS) three-period panel data.After overcoming the potential endogeneity problem by using the Lewbel IV method,this paper systematically and rigorously clarifies the causal effects of falls as a malignant event on the multidimensional health of senior people,examines the persistence of negative shocks for the first time,measures the costs,and finds urban-rural and gender heterogeneity in the short- and long-term effects of falls on health.This paper contributes to a deeper understanding of falls among senior people in China,and provides effective empirical evidences and policy-making references for preventing falls among the elderly from policy practices and the construction of a healthy China.

Key words：falls;elderly Health;disabled elderly people;long-term Care Systems