《保险研究》20221105-《长寿风险认知扭曲对养老财务准备的影响》（毛羽、陈秉正）

［摘   要］本文基于个人在中、青年时期会低估长寿风险的有限理性视角，对个人在养老财务准备方面的不足提供了新解释。根据来自CHARLS 2011~2018年的数据,验证了我国中、青年居民存在低估长寿风险的情况；根据被调查者对自身生存概率的主观估计构建的生命周期模型,研究了长寿风险认知扭曲会如何影响养老财务准备；根据2020年进行的中国居民养老财务准备情况调查获得的数据，验证了低估长寿风险会导致人们养老财务准备不足以及养老目标基金配置意愿下降；研究了不同年龄、财富水平和遗赠动机背景下长寿风险认知扭曲对养老财务准备的影响。本研究结论可以为促进我国养老保险第三支柱的发展提供参考。

［关键词］长寿风险；养老财务准备；生命周期模型；养老保险第三支柱

［作者简介］毛羽，清华大学经济管理学院金融系博士生；陈秉正，清华大学经济管理学院金融系教授。

The Impact of Distorted Longevity Risk Cognition on Financial Preparation for Retirement

MAO Yu,CHEN Bing-zheng

Abstract：This paper provides a new explanation for individuals′ inadequate financial preparation for retirement based on the limited-rational perspective that individuals underestimate longevity risk among young and middle-aged people.We first verify the existence of longevity risk underestimation among our young and middle-aged residents based on data from CHARLS 2011-2018.Next,we investigate how distorted perceptions of longevity risk can affect financial preparation for retirement based on a life-cycle model constructed from respondents′ subjective estimates of their survival probability.Subsequently,based on data obtained from the National Survey on Retirement Preparation conducted in 2020,we verify that underestimating longevity risk leads to a lack of financial preparation and a decrease in the willingness to allocate to pension target funds.In addition,the impact of distorted perceptions of longevity risk on retirement financial preparation at different age,wealth level,and bequest motivation contexts are also investigated.The findings of this paper can provide valuable suggestions for promoting the development of the third pillar of pensions in China.

Key words：longevity risk,financial preparation for retirement,lifecycle model,third pillar pensions