《保险研究》20221208-《预期寿命延长、养老金下限“保基本”与最低缴费年限调整》（陈曦、闫丽、范璐璐、李佳雨）

［摘   要］最低缴费年限调整是积极应对人口预期寿命延长导致养老金保障能力弱化的政策，也是扎实推进多支柱养老保险体系建设的参量改革。随着人口预期寿命延长，退休期在生命周期中的比例逐渐提高。由于养老金调整指数低于社会平均工资增长率,最低缴费年限对应的养老金给付下限“保基本”功能逐渐减弱，最低缴费年限标准需要适度调整。参保者预期余命每提高5年最低缴费年限需提高2年才能够实现养老金下限“保基本”功能不下降。女性参保者预期余命在30年情况下，最低缴费年限标准需提高至17年才可以满足基本保障需求，预期余命延长至35～40年，最低缴费年限标准需提高3～5年。提高最低缴费年限标准符合参保个体的经济理性，多数参保者具有延长缴费年限的主观意愿。

［关键词］最低缴费年限；人口预期寿命；社会平均工资替代率；基本保障需求

［基金项目］本文为国家社科基金后期资助项目“城乡基础养老保险缴费率一元化适度水平及其实现路径”(19FRKB001)阶段性研究成果。

［作者简介］陈曦，辽宁大学公共管理学院副教授；闫丽，辽宁大学公共管理学院硕士研究生；范璐璐，辽宁大学经济学院副教授；李佳雨,辽宁大学公共管理学院博士研究生。

Extended Life Expectancy,Minimum Pension for Satisfying Basic Needs and Adjustment of the Minimum Contribution Period

CHEN Xi,YAN Li,FAN Lu-lu,LI Jia-yu

Abstract：The adjustment of the minimum contribution period is not only a policy response to the extension of life expectancy and the weakening protection capability of the social pension fund,but also a parametric reform to solidly promote the construction of the multi-pillar pension insurance system.With the extension of life expectancy of the population,the proportion of retirement period in the life cycle gradually increases.As the pension adjustment index is lower than the social average wage growth rate,the “basic” protection function of the lower limit of pension benefit corresponding to the minimum contribution period gradually weakens,therefore the standard of minimum contribution period needs to be adjusted appropriately.The insured is expected to increase the minimum contribution period by 2 years for each 5-year increase in the remaining life,so as to realize the “basic” function of the lower limit of the pension benefit.When the expected remaining life of female participants is 30 years,the minimum contribution period standard should be increased to 17 years in order to meet the basic protection needs.If the expected remaining life is extended to 35~40 years,and the minimum contribution period standard needs to be further increased by 3~5 years.Raising the minimum payment period standard has the feasibility of the subjective will of the insured,and is in line with the economic rationality of the individual insured.

Key words：minimum contribution period;life expectancy;the substitution rate of the social average wage;basic protection requirements