《保险研究》20230202-《政策性农业保险的碳减排效应——来自完全成本保险和收入保险试点实施的证据》（徐雯、张锦华）

［摘   要］政策性农业保险能够改变农业生产者的预期收益,使其调整生产决策并最终对生态环境产生外部性。本文基于2003~2020年省级面板数据,以2018年在六个省份开展的完全成本保险和收入保险试点政策为准自然实验,运用双重差分法考察了试点开展对农业碳排放水平的影响效应及作用机制。研究发现:完全成本保险和收入保险试点政策的实施显著降低了农业碳排放水平,主要通过经营规模扩张、种植结构调整和要素投入调整三条渠道实现,但对不同自然风险地区的影响存在差异。异质性分析表明,试点开展显著降低高自然风险地区的农业碳排放水平,但对低自然风险地区的政策效果却截然相反。据此,本文为农业风险管理与农业低碳发展之间的关系研究提供了经验支持,也为基于粮食安全的生态环境保护与农业绿色发展提供了相关政策启示。

［关键词］完全成本保险；收入保险；农业碳排放；双重差分

［基金项目］国家自然科学基金项目（72173080）；上海市教委科研创新重大项目（2023SKZD13）。

［作者简介］徐雯，上海财经大学城市与区域科学学院/财经研究所博士研究生，研究方向:农业资源与环境经济；张锦华，上海财经大学城市与区域科学学院/财经研究所研究员，研究方向:农村劳动力、发展经济学。

The Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Policy-based Agricultural Insurance:Evidences from the Implementation of Total Cost Insurance and Income Insurance Pilot Program

XU Wen,ZHANG Jin-hua

Abstract：Policy-based agricultural insurance can change the expected returns of agricultural producers,causing them to adjust their production decisions and ultimately generate externalities to the ecological environment.Based on provincial panel data from 2003 to 2020,this paper regards the pilot program of total cost insurance and income insurance carried out in six provinces in 2018 as a quasi-natural experiment,and uses the difference-in-difference method to investigate the effect and mechanism of policy-based agricultural insurance on agricultural carbon emission.The results show that the implementation of the pilot program can significantly reduce the level of agricultural carbon emissions,which is mainly achieved through three channels:the expansion of operation scale,the adjustment of planting structure and the adjustment of factor input.But the impacts differ for areas with different natural risks.The heterogeneity analysis shows that the pilot program significantly reduces agricultural carbon emissions in areas with high natural risk,but the policy effects are opposite for areas with low natural risk.Therefore,this paper provides empirical support for the research on the relationship between agricultural risk management and agricultural low-carbon development,and also provides relevant policy enlightenment for ecological environmental protection based on food security.

Key words：full cost insurances;income insurances;agricultural carbon emissions;difference-in-differences