《保险研究》20230307-《进口贸易对粮食安全的影响研究——基于财政支农与农业保险的调节效应分析》（卜林、赵轶薇）

［摘   要］本文通过整合省级粮食进口数据并构建粮食安全指标体系,从中国粮食供给侧进口端出发,探究粮食进口规模、粮食进口价格和粮食进口渠道的变化是否会对我国粮食安全产生影响,并考察国内农业保障制度是否对该影响机制存在调节效用。研究结果表明:粮食进口规模的增加、粮食进口价格波动的减缓以及粮食进口来源国的扩展对粮食安全存在正向促进作用。财政支农和农业保险可以在粮食进口规模保障国内粮食供给的基础上,进一步稳定国家粮食自给率,助力我国粮食安全水平。财政支农负向调节了进口粮价波动对粮食安全的削弱作用,在一定程度上保障了我国粮食安全,但农业保险尚不能起到降低国际粮价对国内粮食安全冲击的作用。在国内资源稀缺性和国际市场不确定性的双重约束下,本文为我国充分利用两个市场和两种资源,提升粮食市场国内国外双循环互促动力提供了重要的理论依据。

［关键词］粮食进口；粮食安全；农业保险；财政支农

［基金项目］国家社科基金一般项目（20BJY240）资助。

［作者简介］卜林，天津财经大学金融学院副教授、硕士生导师，经济学博士；赵轶薇，天津财经大学金融学院硕士研究生。

The Impact of Import Trade on Food Security:An Analysis of the Mediation Effect of Fiscal Support for Agriculture and Agricultural Insurance

BU Lin,ZHAO Yi-wei

Abstract：By integrating the provincial food import data and proceeding from China′s grain supply import side,this paper constructs the index system of food security to examines whether the size of grain imports,grain import prices and food import channel changes affects our country′s food security,and whether the domestic agricultural security system has a regulating effect on this influencing mechanism.The results show that the increase in food import scale,the reducing of food import price fluctuation and the expansion of food import source countries have a positive effect on food security.Fiscal support to agriculture and agricultural insurance can further stabilize the rate of food self-sufficiency and enhance China′s food security on the basis of the scale of food imports ensuring domestic food supply.Fiscal support to agriculture negatively moderates the weakening effect of imported grain price fluctuation on food security,which ensures the food security of our country to a certain extent,however agricultural insurance cannot yet play the role of reducing the impact of international grain price cut on domestic food security.Under the dual constraints of domestic resource scarcity and international market uncertainty,this paper provides an important theoretical basis for China to take full advantage of the two markets and two kinds of resources to enhance the domestic and foreign double-cycle mutually promoting forces in the grain market.

Key words：food imports;food security;agricultural insurance;fiscal support for agriculture