《保险研究》20230408-《弹性退休、激励约束与社会养老保险内部收益率》（郭秀云）

［摘   要］养老金激励是弹性退休制度的核心要素之一，“奖惩”机制对劳动者参保收益水平及其差异不应产生负向影响。本文基于精算中性构建养老金激励模型，模拟引入“奖惩因子”前后不同收入水平的代表性职工内部收益率的变化，以考察养老金激励对实际参保收益水平的影响。研究发现：基础养老金的内部收益率随退休年龄和收入水平的提高而下降，具有正向收入再分配功能；个人账户养老金与基础养老金的内部收益率反向变化，缩小了基本养老金的实际参保收益水平差距；低收入群体的收益率优势随退休年龄提高而消减；养老金奖惩机制发挥激励约束作用的同时，对不同收入群体参保收益水平差距的影响微弱。建议尽快建立弹性灵活的退休年龄政策体系；适时将奖惩机制引入养老金待遇计发办法；优化个人账户制度规则和相关参数。

［关键词］弹性退休；激励约束；精算中性；内部收益率

［基金项目］国家社科基金重大项目“积极应对人口老龄化背景下加快养老服务体系建设研究”（20ZDA077）；上海社科规划项目“‘双降’背景下上海城镇职工养老保险基金的潜在缺口及财政风险研究”（2019BGL006）。

［作者简介］郭秀云，华东政法大学政治学与公共管理学院教授、博士生导师，研究方向：社会保障与公共政策。

Flexible Retirement,Incentive and Constraint,and the Internal Rate of Return of Social Pension Insurance

GUO Xiu-yun

Abstract：Pension incentive is one of the core elements of the flexible retirement system,and the “reward and punishment” mechanism should not have a negative impact on the benefit level and the difference of the insurance participants.Based on actuarial neutrality,this paper constructs a pension incentive model and simulates the change of IRR in representative workers with different income levels after the introduction of the “reward and punishment factor”,in order to investigate the effect of pension incentive on the actual benefit level of insurance participation.The study finds that the IRR of basic pension decreases with the increase of retirement age and income level,which has the function of positive income redistribution;the IRRs of personal account pension and basic pension changes in reverse,narrowing the gap of pension′s actual benefit level;the return advantage of low-income groups decreases with the increase of retirement age;while the pension reward and punishment mechanism plays an incentive and restraint role,it has a weak impact on the difference of the benefit levels of different income groups.The study suggests establishing a flexible retirement age policy system as soon as possible,incorporating the reward and punishment mechanism into pension benefit measures,and optimizing the rules and parameters of individual account system.

Key words：flexible retirement;incentive & constraint;actuarial neutrality；internal rate of return