《保险研究》20230508-《子女性别、流动时间与流动人口养老保险参保行为：一个社会融合视角》（杨田丽、赵忠、魏海伦）

［摘   要］基于社会融合视角，子女性别对流动人口养老保险参保行为的影响可能具有动态特征。本文利用2016年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据（CMDS2016）定量研究了子女性别对流动人口养老保险参保行为的影响及流动时间在其中的调节作用。借助第一胎子女性别的外生性，研究发现，第一胎是儿子会显著降低流动人口养老保险参保行为，包括总体参保、在流入地参保和在流出地参保的行为。流动时间反向调节子女性别的负向影响，随着流动时间越来越长，第一胎是儿子对养老保险参保行为的负向影响慢慢减弱甚至消失，具体地，在流动5年后，这种负向影响消失。同时，子女性别和流动时间对养老保险参保行为的影响在城-城流动人口中更明显。本文的结论对促进养老保险合理化改革和城镇化具有一定的现实意义。

［关键词］养老保险；子女性别；流动人口；流动时间；社会融合

［作者简介］杨田丽，中国人民大学劳动人事学院博士研究生；赵忠，中国人民大学劳动人事学院教授,博士生导师，研究方向：劳动经济学、公共政策与社会项目评估、应用微观计量经济学；魏海伦（通讯作者），中国人民大学财政金融学院博士研究生。

Children′s Gender,Pension Insurance Participation Behavior of Migrant Population and Their Time of Move:A Social Integration Perspective

YANG Tian-li,ZHAO Zhong,WEI Hai-lun

Abstract：Based on the perspective of social integration,the influence of children′s gender on the pension participation of migrant population has dynamic characteristics.This study examines the effect of children′s gender on migrant populations′ pension insurance participation and the moderation effect of time of move using data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey 2016 (CMDS2016).With the exogeneity of the first child′ gender,we discover that having a boy as the first child significantly reduces the migrant population′s pension insurance participation behavior,including overall participation and participation in inflow and outflow districts.The time of move inversely regulates the negative effect of the gender of the children.The gender effect of the first male child on pension insurance gradually decreases or even disappears as the time of move extends.Five years after their move,this negative effect finally disappears.The impact of children′s gender and time of move are particularly noticeable among the city-to-city migrant population.This study further demonstrates that the social integration of ideas (the change of having children against old age and helping children buy houses) promoted by extended time of move is a possible explanation for the disappearance of the negative influence of children′s gender.This conclusion has some practical implications for further reform on the pension insurance system and urbanization.

Key words：pension insurance;children′s gender;migrant population;time of move;social integration