《保险研究》20230803-《基本养老保险个人账户记账利率等参数的锚定与动态调整》（詹家煊、王晓军）

［摘   要］“十四五”时期是中国基本养老保险制度走向更加成熟定型的改革攻关期。为有效应对当前的老龄化冲击，增强基本养老保险的稳定性、可持续性，中国需要在已有基础上，进一步研究建立科学合理的参数设定办法和调整机制。本文聚焦基本养老保险个人账户参数改革，基于流动性和偿付能力视角，探索研究个人账户记账利率、待遇调整指数等制度参数的锚定方法和调整机制，得出相应的锚定公式和动态调整公式。模拟论证显示，本文给出的参数锚定公式和动态调整公式，能够有效改善制度的流动性和偿付能力状况，降低制度对财政补贴的依赖，不断增强制度可持续性。

［关键词］人口老龄化；个人账户养老金；记账利率；待遇调整指数；动态调整

［基金项目］国家社科基金重点项目“我国基本养老保险制度研究”(20AZD075),教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“健康中国2030背景下的健康老龄化体系优化研究”(20JZD023)。

［作者简介］詹家煊，经济学博士，上海市人力资源和社会保障局社会保险基金监督处干部；王晓军（通讯作者），中国人民大学统计学院院长、教授、博士生导师，中国人民大学应用统计科学研究中心研究员。

Anchoring and Dynamic Adjustment of the Basic Pension Individual Accounts′ Nominal Interest Rate and Other Parameters

ZHAN Jia-xuan,WANG Xiao-jun

Abstract：The “14th Five-Year Plan” period is a crucial period for reforming on and the sophistication of China′s basic pension system.In order to cope with the impacts of population aging and enhance the stability and sustainability of China′s basic pension system,China needs to establish a more scientific parameter setting method and carry out an adjustment mechanism on the current basis.In view of liquidity and solvency,this paper studies the anchoring methods and adjustment mechanisms for the basic pension individual accounts′ nominal interest rate and benefit adjustment index,obtains corresponding anchoring formulas and dynamic adjustment formulas.The simulation shows that our anchoring and dynamic adjustment formulas can effectively improve the liquidity and solvency of the system,reduce its dependence on fiscal subsidy,and continuously enhance the sustainability of the system.

Key words：population aging;individual account;nominal interest rate;benefit adjustment index;dynamic adjustment