《保险研究》20240607-《公司层面大灾准备金对农业保险承保风险的影响研究》（朱铭、宋建国）

［摘   要］在经营过程中承担适宜的风险，对于保险公司稳健经营和可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于我国2014~2020年经营农业保险业务的保险机构数据，采用固定效应模型和 GMM 方法分析了公司层面的农业保险大灾风险准备金对农业保险承保风险的影响。研究发现：（1）公司层面大灾准备金能够显著降低保险公司的农业保险承保风险，相较保费准备金，利润准备金的风险分散效果更佳；（2）对于农险专业化程度较高的公司这一影响更为显著；（3）偿付能力监管体系发挥了调节效应，表现为“偿二代”的实施与公司层面大灾准备金在平滑农业保险承保风险中存在协同作用。根据研究结论，本文提出了动态调整大灾准备金计提比例区间、调整大灾准备金使用顺序、推动国家层面的大灾基金尽快建立、实施偿付能力差异化监管等建议。

［关键词］农业保险；大灾风险准备金；承保风险；偿付能力监管体系

［作者简介］朱铭，中国太平洋保险（集团）股份有限公司博士后科研工作站、太安农业保险研究院博士后，研究方向：农业风险管理、农业保险；宋建国，中国太平洋财产保险股份有限公司副总经理、太安农业保险研究院院长。

The Impacts of Company-level Catastrophe Risk Reserves on Agricultural Insurance Underwriting Risk

ZHU Ming,SONG Jian-guo

Abstract：Taking appropriate risks in agricultural insurance operation is important for the sound operation of insurance companies and the sustainable development of agricultural insurance system.Based on the data of insurance companies operating agricultural insurance business from 2014 to 2020,this paper analyzes the impacts of company-level catastrophe risk reserves on agricultural insurance underwriting risk by using the fixed-effects model and the GMM method,examines the heterogeneity problem due to the differences in the degree of specialization in agricultural insurance,and tests the regulating effect of the insurance company′s solvency regulatory system.The study finds that:(1) company-level catastrophe reserves can significantly reduce the agricultural insurance underwriting risk of insurance companies,and the risk diversification effect of catastrophe risk profit reserves is stronger than that of premium reserves;(2) in terms of differences in the degree of specialization in agricultural insurance,the effect of catastrophe reserves at the company level on underwriting risk is more pronounced for insurers with a higher degree of specialization in agricultural insurance;(3) it is shown that the regulatory system of insurance company solvency plays a moderating effect,which is manifested in the synergistic effect in smoothing the underwriting risk of agricultural insurance between the implementation of the "Solvency II" and the company-level catastrophe reserves.Based on the conclusions of the study,this paper puts forward the suggestions of dynamically adjusting the ratio range of catastrophe reserves,adjusting the order of catastrophe reserves usage,promoting the establishment of national disaster fund,and implementing differentiated solvency supervision.

Key words：agricultural insurance;catastrophe risk reserves;underwriting risk;solvency regulatory system